Distinct time trends in colorectal cancer incidence in countries with SDI levels from 1990 to 2019: An age–period–cohort analysis for the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study


Our study performed the age–period–cohort (APC) model to estimate the incidence trend in colorectal cancer (CRC) and the relative risks of age, period and cohort in 204 countries and territories during 1990–2019, with the data extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. In 2019, the incidence of CRC was 2.17 (95% UI 2.00–2.34) million, of which China, the United States of America, and Japan had the highest incidence population, accounting for 45.9% of the global population. In the past 30 years, the incidence rate in 31 countries has been well controlled (net drift <0), and most of them were concentrated in high–and high–middle– SDI regions, such as Australia, Czechia, and Belgium, and the relative risk of incidence generally improved over time and consecutive young birth cohorts. CRC incidence showed an unfavorable trend (net drift ≥1%) in 89 countries, of which 27 countries were more significant (net drift >2%), mostly concentrated in the middle SDI region, such as China, Mexico, and Brazil, and the risk of period and birth cohort was unfavorable. Effective prevention and control policies need to take into account the age–period–cohort effect characteristics of different regions.

Under review at Neoplasia